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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Nate- Final Advisory
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Nate- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:24 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:02 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea have become better
organized since yesterday. This system is expected to become a
tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward toward
the coast of Nicaragua. The low should move slowly northwestward
across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras on
Thursday, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday, and
emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Interests in
Nicaragua, Honduras, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be
issued later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless
of development, this system will produce heavy rains over portions
of Central America during the next few days, likely causing flash
floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:41 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the
Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the
border with Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across
portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches
possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible.
Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:45 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since
yesterday and is now a tropical depression. GOES-16 one-minute
visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands
of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite
classification, given recent microwave data. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
provide a better estimate.

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around
a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the
aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. As the trough moves away, a building
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system
to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf
states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to
the representation of the Florida Straits trough. The GFS-based
guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the
new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of
the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the
UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,
but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras
tonight through Thursday.

2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing
or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for
the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 12.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake



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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:04 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
THE DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 82.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:38 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS TAMPA


.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Thursday Night-Wednesday)...
The big concern during this period will be the track of TD 16
and it`s affect on the area. Latest model tracks bring the
system north into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night and
Saturday and then reaching the northern gulf coast Sunday or
Sunday night. The exact track remains uncertain and
therefore effects on West Central and Southwest Florida, but
at the very least we should see decent rain chances and
higher than normal tides this weekend.

For Thursday night into Saturday we`ll have deep moisture across
the region with an east to southeast flow in place. This
combined with daytime heating will lead to scattered to
numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few
thunderstorms, but in reality we could see convection at
almost anytime.

Saturday night into Monday TD 16 is forecast to be moving north
through the Gulf of Mexico with the region remaining in the
eastern semi-circle. Robust southerly winds will become
southwesterly by Monday leading to higher than normal tides
with the potential for a surge of 1-3 feet along the west
coast, possible 3 to 5 feet along Citrus and Levy counties
depending on the future track of TD 16. Other impacts could
be locally heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and a high
risk of rip currents at area beaches.
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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Visible satellite images show that the depression has lots of
curved bands, although it is somewhat lacking any inner core
features. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flew into the
depression this afternoon and found a well-defined circulation, with
maximum flight-level winds of 37 kt and SFMR values around 30 kt.
These data support keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over
the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in
the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices
are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance
of rapid intensification occurring. The fly in the ointment,
however, is all of the potential land interaction, first over
Central America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. As
a compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the
previous one during the first 3 days, but is still below some
guidance, such as the HWRF.

The depression continues to move slowly northwestward, steered by a
distant ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. However the steering
pattern is forecast to change quickly tomorrow as a mid-tropospheric
trough over the Florida Straits moves across the northwestern
Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on
the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move
much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. While there is some agreement on the
synoptic pattern, the model track agreement is rather poor, even in
the short term, with the GFS and ECMWF being 90 miles apart on the
forecast track as soon as 24 hours out. This has profound
differences down the road, with the GFS-based guidance moving
considerably faster and to the left of the ECMWF and UKMET across
the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a
bit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long
range have been adjusted in that direction. At this point, I
wouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range
forecast until the guidance comes into better agreement. A G-IV
mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow
to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through
Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa
Rica, and Panama through Friday night.

2. The system is expected to be near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing
direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A
hurricane watch could be issued for this area later this evening.

3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of
Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing,
location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf
Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this
system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local
officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 82.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the
depression. A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 82.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of
the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas
around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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