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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Nate- Final Advisory
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Nate- Final Advisory
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:45 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch westward
along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to Rio Lagartos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:47 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

Deep convection associated with the depression has increased over
the eastern portion of the circulation overnight, however there
has only been a slight increase in overall banding. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the depression is near
tropical-storm strength, but with the center located near the
western edge of the deep convection the cyclone is kept as
a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory.

The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to expected land
interaction today, and possibly again in about 48 hours when the
system passes near the Yucatan peninsula. The depression could
still become a tropical storm before the center moves over
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today. After the
cyclone moves north of Honduras, it will traverse the warm waters of
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, where the upper-level environment is
also forecast to be conducive for strengthening. However, the amount
of strengthening is likely to depend on the structure of the inner
core after it crosses land. The intensity models have continued
their downward trend, but the NHC forecast remains near the higher
side of the guidance due to these favorable conditions and
persistence from the previous advisory. Some additional
strengthening is possible while the system moves over the southern
and central Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC intensity forecast brings
the system to hurricane strength within 72 hours. This is in best
agreement with the SHIPS intensity model.

The depression is moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward during the
next day or two around the western side of a ridge the extends from
near the southeastern Bahamas southwestward into the central
Caribbean Sea. By the weekend, a large mid- to upper-level ridge is
forecast to build off the coast of the southeastern United States,
and this should steer the cyclone north-northwestward at a faster
forward speed. After 72 hours, the system is expected to recurve
around the northwestward side of the ridge. The track guidance is
in better agreement this cycle with the latest runs of the ECMWF
and UKMET models shifting westward, closer to the previous GFS and
HWRF iterations. This has required a fairly substantial westward
shift in the NHC forecast track at 72 h and beyond.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early
Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa
Rica, and Panama through Friday night.

2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches
the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch is
in effect for a portion of this area.

3. The system is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and
could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this
weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location,
or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from
Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.3N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 21.8N 87.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 27.8N 89.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0600Z 39.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:54 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
328 AM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Possible Today...
...Hazardous Boating Conditions Continue Through Early Friday...

.SHORT TERM (Today - Friday)...
High pressure from the Mid-Atlantic extending southwest
across the southeastern states and northern Gulf combined
with a mid level trough and surface reflection (inverted
trough/tropical wave) across the Florida Straits and south
Florida will maintain a moderate northeast to easterly wind
flow over the region today with breezy conditions continuing
as a tight pressure gradient remains in place across the
peninsula. The trough and a developing weak surface low (as
depicted by the latest models) will move west into the Gulf
of Mexico later today through Friday.

As these features move west abundant tropical moisture (PW`s
increasing to 2.2 to 2.4 inches) will overspread the region
today with increasing rain chances expected, especially
across central and southern sections where pops in the 60 to
80 percent range will be in place, with rain chances in the
40 to 60 percent range across the Nature Coast.

The increasing moisture and large scale lift combined with
increasing upper level diffluence will increase the
potential for some locally heavy rainfall across central and
southern portions of the forecast area today and will keep
heavy rain wording in the forecast. As mentioned yesterday
the heavy rain potential may exacerbate ongoing river
flooding along the Withlacoochee river at Trilby, Holder,
and Dunnellon and all residents living along this river
should remain alert to any rapid rises in water levels. The
locally heavy rain could also cause some minor flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas, as well as the ponding of
water on roadways and all motorists are urged to exercise
caution if encountering heavy rain today.

Tonight into Friday winds will diminish some as the pressure
gradient relaxes as the trough/surface low moves further to
the west over the Gulf with the flow becoming southeasterly
in its wake. Deep tropical moisture (PW`s 2.1 to 2.4 inches)
will remain in place over the forecast area and will keep
rain chances high through the period with scattered to
numerous showers and isolated storms expected along with the
possibility of some additional heavy rain in some
locations.

Increasing cloud cover and rain chances will support near
normal high temperatures today and Friday with highs in
the lower 80s, while lows tonight will remain above normal
with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night - Wednesday)...
What is currently Tropical Depression 16...TD 16...is
expected to be near the northern Yucatan Peninsula Fri
night as Atlantic high pressure ridges in across FL. Latest
guidance tracks TD 16 northward across the Gulf of Mexico
during much of the weekend...reaching the northern Gulf
coast Sun or Sun night. Where the exact track ends up will
determine the impacts to West Central and Southwest Fl...but
good rain chances and higher than normal tides will be
likely.

Deep moisture prevails...PWAT values run 2 to 2.4
inches...over the weekend as lower level flow shifts from
easterly to southeast then south to southwest as TD 16
traverses the Gulf. This moisture will support scattered to
numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms. These could be
just about any time but daytime heating will enhance
afternoon and evening activity. There could be locally heavy
rainfall which may lead to flooding issues. The wind speeds
will gradually increase and as they become south then
southwest will result in higher than normal tides and a high
risk of rip currents along the coast that will continue
into Mon.

For late Mon through Wed what is currently TD 16 is expected to
move inland over the Gulf coastal or southeastern states as
Atlantic high pressure builds back across Fl and over the
Gulf. This shifts winds back to easterly with slightly drier
air...but still enough moisture for scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings.
Temperatures generally run above normal...by a couple of
degrees for the highs and perhaps 2 to 4 degrees for the
lows. However both highs and lows cool slightly by the end
of the period.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:26 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NATE NEAR THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Nate is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. A north-northwestward motion at
a faster forward speed is forecast to begin later today and continue
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate
should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today
and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.
The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan
peninsula late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today as the center
of Nate moves across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight
and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Puerto Cabezas recently reported a pressure of 1001 mb
(29.56 inches)


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches
Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Honduras and Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Eastern portions of the Yucatan peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches

Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well
away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico beginning late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast
of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:58 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...CENTER OF NATE NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands from
Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Nate.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was
located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.3 North,
longitude 83.7 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through
Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move
across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today and then
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center
is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today while the center is
over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:00 am    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

The cloud pattern associated with Tropical Depression Sixteen
increased in organization after the last advisory, with the
formation of a ragged central convective feature and outer banding
in the northeastern semicircle. In addition, data from the
Colombian radar at San Andres showed a partial eyewall, and surface
observations from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, included a pressure of
1001 mb outside of the center. Based on these data, the initial
intensity has been increased to 35 kt, and the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.

The center of Nate is now inland over northeastern Nicaragua, and
little change in strength is expected until the center moves over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After that, a combination of warm
sea surface temperatures and light shear should allow for at least
steady strengthening. However, the guidance is producing mixed
signals despite a favorable-looking environment. The Rapid
Intensification Index of the SHIPS model is showing high chances of
rapid intensification, with better than a 50 percent chance of 25
kt of strengthening in the next 24 h and nearly a 50 percent chance
of 65 kt of strengthening in 72 h. On the other side, the GFS and
Canadian models show only modest development and keep the cyclone
as a tropical storm until it reaches the northern Gulf coast.
Given the environment, the intensity forecast leans towards the high
end of the guidance envelope and calls for Nate to become a
hurricane in about 48 h and reach the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane.

The initial motion is 325/8. A combination of a large cyclonic gyre
over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward
across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward
with an increase in forward speed during the next 72 h. While the
guidance is in better agreement on the direction that Nate should
move, there remains disagreement on the speed despite an overall
trend toward a faster motion. The new forecast track is similar to
the direction of the previous track, but shows a faster forward
speed that has the center near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
in about 36 h and near the northern Gulf Coast in about 72 h.
After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its remnants are expected to
recurve northeastward upon encountering the mid-latitude
westerlies.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through Friday night.

2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct
impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm
warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this
area and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as
a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing. However, it is too early
to specify the exact timing, location, or magnitude of these
impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Nate and heed any
advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.3N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 84.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 23.7N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 29.5N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 36.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 41.5N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 84.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

The center of Nate is now over eastern Honduras, and the cloud
pattern has lost some organization since the last advisory due to
passage over land. In addition, recent ASCAT overpasses suggest
that there are no tropical-storm-force winds outside of the coastal
waters of Nicaragua and Honduras. However, surface observations
indicate that the central pressure remains near 1000 mb, and based
on this the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 35 kt.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Nate as it emerges from the northern coast of Honduras
around 0300 UTC.

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Nate is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, which is more than suggested by the SHIPS model. The
large-scale models are in good agreement that this shear should
diminish during the next 12-24 h, leaving Nate in an favorable
environment for strengthening. One change in the models from the
previous advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate
crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast shows little
change during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction,
then it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken as it
traverses the eastern United States. It should be noted that while
the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is
expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and
thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt. It should also be noted
that SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high, and
any period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being
stronger than currently forecast.

The initial motion is now 330/9. A combination of a large cyclonic
gyre over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward
across the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward
with an increase in forward speed during the next 48 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the north as the storm reaches the
western end of the ridge. The guidance is in decent agreement on
the direction of motion, but there remains disagreement on the speed
despite a continued trend toward a faster motion. The new forecast
track is similar to the direction of the previous track, but again
shows a faster forward speed that now has the center near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in 24-36 h and near the northern Gulf
Coast in 60-72 h. After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its
remnants are expected to recurve northeastward upon encountering the
mid-latitude westerlies.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of
Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides
possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and
Belize through Friday night.

2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct
impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm
warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this
area and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.

3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as
a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the
Florida Panhandle. A hurricane watch and storm surge watch will
likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or
Friday morning, and residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Nate and heed any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 14.9N 84.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0600Z 16.5N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1800Z 19.2N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 22.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.6N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 38.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z 41.5N 72.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:45 pm    Post subject: Re: Nate- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...NATE'S CENTER STILL OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 84.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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