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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Philippe- Final Advisory
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Philippe- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:16 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS MIAMI

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Miami FL
1018 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...Flood Watch As Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen
Approaches...

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-282230-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0007.171028T1500Z-171029T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
1018 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal
Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland
Miami- Dade, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro
Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.

* Through 4 AM EDT Sunday

* Showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain are
expected today and tonight, which may lead to flooding. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches will be common, with isolated amounts
around 6 inches possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 82.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located by weather radars from Cuba and Grand Cayman near
latitude 21.8 North, longitude 82.4 West. The depression is moving
toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A motion toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across
west-central Cuba this afternoon and evening, across the Straits of
Florida and near the Florida Keys overnight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across extreme
southern Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:20 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0916
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 281604Z - 282200Z

SUMMARY...SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND RAIN BANDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING RAIN RATES OVER TIME. THIS MAY POSE
THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

DISCUSSION...THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SURROUNDING
NEWLY-MINTED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 WAS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS CLEARLY SHOWN IN THE CIRA BLENDED TPW AND
LAYER PW PRODUCTS...BUT CAN ALSO BE INFERRED BY COMPARING THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM KEY WEST (2.3 INCH PW) AND MIAMI (1.68 INCH PW).
THE GRADIENT IS FURTHER NORTH NOW THAN IT WAS AT 12Z AND SHOULD
REACH THE INTERSTATE-4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MID-AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS INCREASING
(BUT STILL WEAK TO MODERATE) INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH HIGHEST VALUES FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS (VERY MOIST PROFILE WITH
NARROW CAPE) SHOULD SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH DOMINANT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION AND HIGH INSTANTANEOUS/HOURLY RAIN RATES. THE PAST
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW RAIN RATES PEAKING AS HIGH AS 3 IN/HR IN
THE 18-22Z TIME FRAME AND THAT DOES SEEM ACHIEVABLE.

WHILE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN RATES IN
ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP...ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD
LIKELY REQUIRE MORE FOCUSED AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THE PRIMARY AREA WHERE THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY WOULD BE WITH AN
ALREADY ESTABLISHED CONVERGENT RAIN BAND CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
MIDDLE KEYS (AND MOVING NORTH AROUND 10-15 KNOTS). THE RAP AND
HRRR TRACK THIS FEATURE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND AN
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE MAX RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COMBINES FAVORABLY WITH FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE.
EXTRAPOLATION AND RAP FORECASTS WOULD BRING THIS ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE INTO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES BETWEEN 18Z AND
22Z. ADDITIONALLY...KAMX RADAR SHOWS NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH NORTH
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND...JUST OFFSHORE OF MIAMI AS OF 16Z. IF
THIS CAN FILL IN A BIT MORE (PARTICULARLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON)...THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE
INCREASED ALONG THE COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.

ANOTHER AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS FURTHER
NORTH...ROUGHLY FROM FORT MYERS TO PORT ST. LUCIE. THIS BOUNDARY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS FAIRLY WEAK. THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY AFTER 18Z...BUT MAY BE OVERESTIMATING
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF HEAVIER RAIN RATES IN THIS
AREA FURTHER NORTH IS MORE CONDITIONAL...AT LEAST THROUGH 22Z.

LAMERS
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

TD-18

21.8N, 82.4W, Winds 35 KTS, Pressure 1005 MB, TS
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast
by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast
of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37
mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:18 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Satellite images, radar data from Cuba and Key West, and surface
observations indicate the depression has turned northward over the
past few hours, and has also strengthened into a tropical storm.
The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a surface observation of
35 kt in a brief squall from Grand Cayman at 1444Z, a recent AMSU
estimate of 37 kt, and average Key West Doppler radar velocities of
40 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft just north of the Cuban coast; the
latter data equates to an approximate surface wind speed of 36 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/25 kt based on radar data and
high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery over the past 2-3
hours. The low-level wind flow pattern for the next 6 hours or so is
forecast to be complex, with a new non-tropical surface low having
recently formed about 100 nmi west of Key West, Florida. This
feature appears to have developed beneath an upper-level jet
entrance region ahead of an approaching cold front. The global,
regional, and even the convective-scale models are now showing the
center of Philippe moving general northward across the Straits of
Florida this evening and merging with the non-tropical low around
0000Z. After the merger over Florida Bay, the various models are in
good agreement on Philippe moving northeastward to
east-northeastward across extreme southern Florida or the Florida
Keys overnight as the cyclone is accelerated ahead of the
aforementioned frontal system and strong mid-/upper-level trough.
After reaching the northwestern Bahamas by 1200Z Sunday morning,
Philippe is forecast to accelerate further towards the northeast at
forward speeds of 30-35 kt, by Sunday afternoon and evening,
remaining well offshore of the Carolinas. By 36 hours, Philippe is
expected to pass about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern
United States, and gradually getting pulled north-northeastward up
the east side of a powerful baroclinic low that is forecast to
develop near Cape Hatteras and move northward near the U.S. east
coast. The NHC track guidance is in reasonable agreement on this
developing track scenario, and lies between the GFS model, which
takes Philippe across the Florida Keys, and the ECMWF model, which
moves the cyclone farther north over South Florida.

The vertical wind shear affecting Philippe is expected to remain
favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours, along
with an additional baroclinic boost from the aforementioned
upper-level jet maximum. By 36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing
associated with the approaching frontal system are forecast to
induce additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with
the frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours.
Dissipation or absorption by a larger extratropical low is expected
by 72 hours when the system is located over the cold waters of the
North Atlantic.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across
the Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest
winds are expected to remain east and southeast of the center.
However, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur
in brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast
Florida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains
in effect for these areas.

2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat
from this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized
flooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.0N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

0608 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE PALM SPRINGS 26.65N 80.07W
10/28/2017 M75 MPH PALM BEACH FL MESONET

SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT MESONET SITE
FHCHS NEAR INTERSECTION OF FOREST HILL BLVD AND
INTERSTATE 95 MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 75 MPH. LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0618 PM TORNADO 2 SSW WEST PALM BEACH 26.69N 80.07W
10/28/2017 PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO REPORTED AND CAPTURED ON VIDEO BY TRAINED
SPOTTER NEAR BELVEDERE RD AND INTERSTATE 95. TIME
ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
634 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM TORNADO WEST PALM BEACH 26.71N 80.06W
10/28/2017 PALM BEACH FL BROADCAST MEDIA

VIDEO OF A TORNADO NEAR KRAVIS CENTER IN DOWNTOWN WEST
PALM BEACH VIA CBS 12 PALM BEACH. TIME ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM TORNADO 2 SE TAMIAMI FAIRGROUND 25.74N 80.35W
10/28/2017 MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND AWNINGS... FENCES AND POWER LINES
DOWNED... AND SMALL TREES SNAPPED.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:44 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...PHILIPPE MOVING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 82.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...45 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning mean
s that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 82.5 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 28 mph (45 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
is expected during the next several hours, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move through the Straits of
Florida this evening, and move across the Florida Keys or the
southern tip of the Florida peninsula overnight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 4:03 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 81.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Craig Key to Golden Beach Florida and
for the Central Bahamas is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

For storm information specific to your area outside the United
States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
estimated near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.0 West. Philippe
is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and
a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the
southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, and then across
the northwestern Bahamas later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. However,
Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight,
and to become absorbed by an extratropical low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the northern Bahamas and
eastern Cuba, and additional rain accumulations of less than 1 inch
over south Florida. This rainfall could cause flash flooding,
especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to end in the warning
area in Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later
this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 4:06 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Philippe is a very poorly organized system, and it is a stretch to
call it a tropical cyclone at this time. The most trackable center
passed near Key West a couple of hours ago and has moved into the
Straits of Florida. Given that northwesterly winds are now observed
over southeastern Florida, however, it is unlikely that this is a
unique center of circulation. Therefore, the advisory location
near the southern tip of Florida is more of a mean center position.
Given that, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 070/15 kt.
Regardless of its precise location, the overall system should turn
northeastward to north-northeastward and accelerate considerably
ahead of a high amplitude 500 mb trough near the United States east
coast.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated
that the maximum sustained winds were near 40 kt over the Straits
of Florida. Deep convection has been displaced well to the
northeast of the estimated center by nearly 50 kt of deep-layer
shear. The shear is forecast to increase even more, and Philippe
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours as it becomes embedded within a cold front that is approaching
from the northwest. The above-mentioned trough is likely to induce
some baroclinic intensification of the storm today and tonight. By
Monday, however, the global models show the cyclone becoming
absorbed into a larger and stronger extratropical low near New
England.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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