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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Philippe- Final Advisory
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Philippe- Final Advisory
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Post new topic   Reply to topic    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2017 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Discussion
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ccstorms
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Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:52 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure centered near the east coast of
Nicaragua is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Close
proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for
the next day or two. However, environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some development to occur later this week while
the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky



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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the
adjacent Caribbean waters is producing widespread, but disorganized,
showers and thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or two. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur later this week while the system moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:02 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the
adjacent Caribbean waters is producing widespread, but disorganized,
showers and thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to
limit development of this system for the next day or so. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur later this week while the system moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:57 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
Nicaragua, Honduras, and the adjacent waters. Close proximity to
land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day
or so. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the system to become more organized later this week as
it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front
will likely prevent further development by Sunday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central
America and Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:32 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America
have become a little better organized over the past few hours. Close
proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for
the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for the system to become more organized later this
week as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold
front will likely prevent further development by Sunday. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America and Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky



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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:41 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS MIAMI

By Saturday, models are showing an area of tropical moisture
moving up from the south, bringing the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are indicating heavy
rainfall accumulations are possible, with area averages of 3 to 4
inches possible, and localized areas possibly seeing higher
totals. This will not be around long, as the next cold front is
forecast to move through on Sunday, causing the tropical moisture
to be pushed out by Sunday late afternoon or evening. This air
mass is not forecast to be quite as cool, but will still bring
lows back down into the 50`s and 60`s by Tuesday morning. Dew
points are also forecast to drop back down into the 40`s and 50`s
for Monday.

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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:19 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America
are gradually becoming better organized. Close proximity to land is
likely to limit development of this system for the next day or so.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
the system to become more organized later this week as it moves
slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong
upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will
make conditions less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America and Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:05 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America
are gradually becoming better organized. Close proximity to land is
likely to limit development of this system on Thursday. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system
to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level
winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions
less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are likely over portions of Central America and Cuba during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:30 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
and Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to limit
development of this system during the next 24 hours. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system
to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level
winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions
less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central
America and Cuba during the next couple of days. These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown

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ccstorms
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:50 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some development on
Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated
with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable
by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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