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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Philippe- Final Advisory
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Philippe- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:28 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS MIAMI

DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather will continue for another day before a weak low
associated with an area of tropical moisture moves up from the
south. While models are in good agreement with bringing up the
system, there is still quiet a bit of uncertainty as to where
heavy rain may fall. However, there is pretty high confidence
that all South Florida will see rain and possibly some
thunderstorms on Saturday and possibly lasting until Sunday
morning, before exiting out ahead of the next cold front.

Models are showing a weak low moving north from the western
Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan, and over western Cuba. The
GFS, ECMWF, NAM, SREF, and the Canadian all have the low tracking
over the Keys, and the far southern tip of the Florida peninsula.
The all spread precipitation across the area as well. They do
differ on the strength of the low, with the GFS and ECMWF showing
a closed low with a minimum pressure of around 1003 mb. So, the
largest threat continues to be the potential for heavy rain. The
GFS and the NAM both show PWATs of around 2.25 inches over all of
SOuth Florida on Saturday. Given this, have PoPs of 80 to 90
percent for the entire CWA on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Rain will begin to move in Friday night however. Again, the
uncertainty is where the heaviest rain will fall, which could be
anywhere from the Keys to the Lake region. So, will keep the WPC
QPF guidance at this time. The important message here is that a
basin average of 3 to 4 inches of rain is possible. Some localized
heavier amounts is also possible.

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from northern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras northeastward across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica
to eastern Cuba are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development on Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level
winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions
less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two.
These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of
South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern
Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:57 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a trough of low preesure over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea has become more concentrated during the
past several hours between northeastern Honduras and Jamaica.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development today and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds
associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less
favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These
rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South
Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas
Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Beven

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:14 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:51 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning
to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or
Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday.
Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman
Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern
Bahamas later today or tonight. Interests in the Florida Keys and
South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to
investigate this system.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and
portions of Cuba during the next day or two. Rainfall is also
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas
Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Brennan

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:21 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN

NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropcial Cyclone Eighteen, currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:46 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long
Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas,
Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is
expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system
will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the
northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm
tonight or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system has the potential to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night.
Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and northwestern
Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated
maximum of 8 inches possible.

These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in
urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:47 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined center. In
fact, the aircraft data and satellite imagery suggest that there are
multiple circulations embedded within a broader circulation at this
time. Given the lack of a well-defined center, the system is not a
tropical cyclone, but since tropical storm conditions are expected
to affect Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas in the next 24 to 36
hours, advisories are being initiated on the system as a potential
tropical cyclone at this time.

The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on aircraft data, with
these winds found well south of the broad circulation center.
However, NOAA buoy 42057 also reported a peak 1-minute wind of 31 kt
earlier today. Aircraft data suggest that the central pressure is
around 1006 mb. The system is situated in a low-shear environment
and over warm waters, so some slow strengthening is expected in the
first 24 hours before the system reaches Cuba. The official forecast
follows the trend of the intensity consensus in showing a peak of
around 45 kt at 36 and 48 hours before the system is absorbed by an
approaching cold front in 60-72 hours.

Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial position is and
the initial motion of 330/05 are highly uncertain. A faster
northward motion should begin soon as the disturbance begins to
recurve ahead of an approaching mid/upper-level trough moving into
the southeastern United States. This trough should cause a faster
northeastward acceleration at 24 through 48 hours. The track model
guidance is in generally good agreement on the overall scenario,
with more along than cross track spread. The NHC forecast leans
toward a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models and is a little slower
than the current multi-model consensus. Not surprisingly, given the
disorganized initial state of the system, the track forecast
uncertainty is larger than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 17.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/0600Z 19.1N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 24.6N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

NWS TAMPA

Increasing low level moisture
within a southeast wind flow will support a slow increase in
clouds across the forecast area overnight as deep tropical
moisture (PW`s 2+ inches) associated with a tropical
disturbance over the northwest Caribbean begins to spread
north into the area overnight into Saturday. The increasing
cloud cover and southeast wind flow will lead to a milder
night across the forecast area with overnight lows in the
upper 50s across the Nature Coast, and lower to mid 60s
central and south.

On Saturday models remain consistent in lifting an area of
low pressure (possibly tropical in nature) northward out
of the western Caribbean toward Cuba and the Florida Straits
during the day as an amplifying upper level trough and cold
front approach from the northwest. The National Hurricane
Center currently has a 80 percent chance of tropical
development with this low pressure area through Saturday,
before increasing wind shear limits any further development
during Saturday night into Sunday. For additional
information on this system see the latest tropical weather
outlook being issued by the National Hurricane Center. Regardless
of development models remain consistent in bringing deep
moisture and increasing rain chances to the region on
Saturday, with the highest pops (60 to 80 percent range)
expected across southwest Florida where the deepest moisture
and greatest impacts from this system are expected, with
rain chances then tapering back to 30 to 50 percent across
central zones, and 20 percent or less across the Nature
Coast.

With moisture, large scale lift, and upper level divergence
forecast to increase across south-central portions of the
forecast area there will be the potential for some locally
heavy rainfall on Saturday especially across southwest
Florida where rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally
higher amounts will be possible.
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