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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Philippe- Final Advisory
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Philippe- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:22 pm    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas,
Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
17.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is
expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system
will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the
northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm
tonight or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The system has the potential to produce the following
rainfall totals:

Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night.
Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and northwestern
Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated
maximum of 8 inches possible.

These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in
urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:16 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 84.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas,
Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 18.2 North, longitude 84.4 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion is
expected Saturday morning, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast later on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the
system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through
the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system
is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce
the following rainfall totals:

Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night.

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
landslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:18 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE
WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas,
Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara Cuba
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast is
expected to begin later today and continue through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba later today
and move through the northwestern Bahamas tonight and early Sunday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds
are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce
the following rainfall totals:

Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through this morning.

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
landslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:20 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TOWARD THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 84.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
19.6 North, longitude 84.2 West. The system is moving faster toward
the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). An additional acceleration toward
the north-northeast and northeast is expected through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center will move across western Cuba this
afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce
the following rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
landslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central
Bahamas tonight or early Sunday.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far
South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:25 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Scatterometer data from several hours ago indicated that the
disturbance consists of a broad circulation with a 100-150 n mi wide
area of light winds (less than 10 kt) and an equally as large radius
of maximum winds. The system still does not appear to have a
well-defined center of circulation, and in fact, the ASCAT data also
showed that the maximum winds are down to about 30 kt. The
associated deep convection is rather disorganized but has been
increasing in coverage near the estimated center during the past
few hours.

While the exact center is difficult to locate, the disturbance's
circulation appears to be moving just east of due north, or 010/9
kt. The disturbance is beginning to accelerate in the flow ahead
of a deep-layer trough located over the eastern three-quarters of
the United States, and this pattern is expected to cause the system
to turn northeastward and accelerate further during the next couple
of days. Although the track models are in agreement on this general
scenario, the overall guidance envelope has shifted a little
westward, most likely as a result of a repositioning of the
disturbance's current location. The new NHC forecast has therefore
been nudged westward as well, lying closest to HCCA and TVCA models
through 36 hours.

The disturbance is currently located in its best environment
shear-wise, but the system's broad and elongated structure is
likely delaying intensification. Although the shear will be
increasing, it should remain low enough for the next 12-18 hours to
support some strengthening if the circulation can tighten up. In
addition, upper-level divergence is expected to increase, which
should also support some strengthening. Since the disturbance has
such a broad circulation, the NHC intensity forecast closely
follows the intensity trends of the GFS and is not too different
from the previous advisory. The system is now expected to merge
with a cold front and be extratropical by 48 hours and then
dissipate by 72 hours.

Even though the track forecast has shifted a little closer to South
Florida and the Florida Keys, the strongest winds are expected to
be well to the east and southeast of the center over the Atlantic
waters and the Bahamas. Therefore, tropical storm watches or
warnings do not appear necessary for Florida at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 19.6N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/1800Z 21.7N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 29/0600Z 24.9N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 34.2N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:34 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote



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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:39 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
457 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...All EYES ARE ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 FOR TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
A Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 over the Western Caribbean Sea is
forecast by the NHC to move north to northeast today crossing
western Cuba and moving through the southeastern Atlantic waters
of South Florida tonight. The Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 should
then move quickly northeast through the Western Atlantic waters on
Sunday, as a cold front moves southeast down the Florida Peninsula
and through South Florida.

Even if the cyclone does not develop today, deep tropical moisture
will work into South Florida through today leading to wet
conditions by this afternoon and remaining over the area tonight,
before quickly drying out on Sunday from north to south as a cold
front moves through the area. Therefore, pops will be in the 80
to 100 percent range today into this evening, before decreasing
quickly late tonight into Sunday morning over South Florida.

Some of the storms could be strong this afternoon into early
tonight, due to a low level jet working into the area around the
Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. The primary threats from the
strong storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy
rainfall. A tornado or two is also possible over South Florida
this afternoon into this evening.

The PWAT values will be increasing quickly over South Florida
today and should get up to 2.2 to 2.4 inches by late this
afternoon into this evening. The PWAT values will then quickly
decrease late tonight into Sunday morning and be down to around 1
inch by Sunday afternoon. This will lead to heavy rainfall late
this afternoon into this evening with the possible 2 to 4 inches
with isolated 6 inches over South Florida. At this time, it looks
like a Flood Watch will not be needed for South Florida due to the
fast moving Potential Cyclone. However, if the Potential Tropical
Cyclone slows down, then a Flood Watch may be needed later today
for South Florida.
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Posts: 13143
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:45 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida
Keys should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
19.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today
and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will
move across western Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of
Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
assess the strength of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce
the following rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
landslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central
Bahamas tonight or early Sunday.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far
South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:06 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 82.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southeastern
Florida and the upper Florida Keys from Craig Key to Golden Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radars from
Cuba and Grand Cayman near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 82.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 22
mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A
motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected to begin tonight and continue through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center will move across west-central Cuba this
afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data
is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central
Bahamas tonight or early Sunday.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far
South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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ccstorms
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Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:12 am    Post subject: Re: Philippe- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the low pressure system located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined low-level circulation
center. Satellite imagery also shows more central deep convection
has developed and persisted in the inner-core region since
yesterday. Based on these data, the disturbance has been upgraded
to Tropical Depression Eighteen.

With the recent redevelopment of the inner-core region this morning,
the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/19 kt. The global
models remain in excellent agreement on an approaching frontal
system and deep mid-tropospheric trough accelerating the cyclone
north-northeastward across west-central Cuba today, followed by a
motion toward the northeast tonight and Sunday, with the system
passing about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United
States in 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is essentially
just an update of the previous advisory due to the good agreement in
the global and consensus models, which lie along or just a tad to
the west of the official forecast track.

The vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to remain
somewhat favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours
or so, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm by
tonight. Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the
aforementioned frontal system are forecast to induce some additional
strengthening before the cyclone merges with the frontal system
and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours. Dissipation is
expected by 72 hours when the system is located over the far North
Atlantic.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the forecast track of the center lies about 35 miles
southeast of the Upper Florida Keys and extreme southeast Florida
and most of the winds are expected to remain east of the center,
only a slight deviation to the west of the expected track or an
increase in the size of the wind field could bring tropical-storm-
force winds across these land areas. For that reason, a tropical
storm watch has been issued for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.6N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 31.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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