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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga
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December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 10:40 am    Post subject: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

A large area of disturbed weather east of Puerto Rico has caught the attention of the NHC. This has been classified as sub-tropical and has a Dvorak rating of ST 1.5 ...25 kts. It is moving west and should reach Puerto Rico tomorrow. Models continue it west and west southwest passing to the south of Cuba later in the week. A more westward track would be necessary for it to bring some rainfall to south Florida but at this time that is not likely.



Last edited by ccstorms on Tue Dec 11, 2007 5:51 pm; edited 2 times in total
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 12:44 pm    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 09 2007

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 24N54W 15N57W
5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 3:20 pm    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE ATERNOON HOURS...
THIS EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

PRZ004-006-009-100800-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0006.071209T2000Z-071210T0800Z/
EASTERN INTERIOR-CENTRAL INTERIOR-WESTERN INTERIOR-
327 PM AST SUN DEC 9 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AST MONDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOUT 1000 FEET ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER...JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA...THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...WHICH WILL INDUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF
PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED
TO INCLUDE ELEVATIONS LOWER THAN 1000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 3:55 pm    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

35 kts...1009 MB.


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2117 UTC SUN DEC 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071209 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071209 1800 071210 0600 071210 1800 071211 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 57.6W 18.7N 60.9W 18.6N 64.4W 18.3N 67.7W
BAMD 18.8N 57.6W 19.8N 59.3W 20.7N 61.1W 21.5N 63.1W
BAMM 18.8N 57.6W 18.9N 59.9W 19.3N 62.4W 19.6N 64.9W
LBAR 18.8N 57.6W 19.4N 59.6W 20.1N 61.2W 20.3N 63.0W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 38KTS 36KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 38KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071211 1800 071212 1800 071213 1800 071214 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 71.3W 17.8N 77.7W 17.4N 82.8W 16.9N 86.9W
BAMD 22.0N 65.0W 22.8N 69.7W 23.6N 73.9W 23.9N 75.7W
BAMM 19.7N 68.0W 20.2N 74.6W 20.7N 80.3W 20.7N 84.4W
LBAR 20.3N 64.6W 19.5N 68.3W 18.4N 73.1W 16.3N 77.5W
SHIP 30KTS 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 57.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:44 pm    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH IN THIS AREA TO
SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 9:24 am    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
PUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMOVED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:00 pm    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS
FURTHER...IT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH. HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:01 pm    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:15 pm    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

If the NHC track shown below verifies, 94L should be near the Yucatan Channel late this week. While conditions in the Caribbean are hostile for development 94L could still be a good rainmaker if the approaching front shown in the pic below grabs 94L and turns it north and northeast into Florida. It's a long shot and we have not been lucky when it comes to getting rain. One can only hope. Very Happy

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:53 pm    Post subject: Re: December surprise? - Tropical Storm Olga Reply with quote

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EST MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS FURTHER...IT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS
AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HEAVY RAINS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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