Don't be fooled by that last frame jump north. It was probably the Sat losing the center as darkness fell. It is moving WNw over the last several hours for sure but not true Nw yet. If it does continue though, it's still far enough East that Western LA is not out of landfall possibility which with a storm of this magnitude would finish off the levy's of NO................As it is, this move further North than the NHC's current track, likely puts the Galveston/ Houston area as the new target of the future model runs..............very bad news
Jeff you agree that it will weaken to a cat 3 at landfall? I hope so for their sake... but as low as the pressure is i'd be suprised if it would have enough time to drop down that far. 898mb is crazy... third strongest ever!
I only feel it will weaken to a Cat 3 if two things happen:
1) System slows forward speed before landfall over Western Gulf's shallow waters
2) System hits coast perpendicular. The reason for this is she would pull dry air off Texas into her circulation, where as if she angles in (Nw) then the inflow off the Gulf continues until landfall...
Geez! that's why I couldn't find my post. I postedin the wrong topic! Doh!
I'm no forecaster or meteorologist, nor do I pretend to be. I'm just an observer. But it has always seem to me that when storm gets as big (area wise and energy wise)as Rita has become. that the normal steering currents begin to have less influence and the storm begins to create more of it's own destiny if you will.
To slightly change the subject a bit, has there ever been a storm that had such a dramatic pressure drop in as short a time as Rita? At the 8:00pm advisory yesterday has a pressure of 969 MB, 23 hours later (7PM) Rita is reported at 898MB! That's pretty dang impressive. _________________
It's actually opposite. When a storm is as large as Rita, she is more likely to be steered than when it's a weaker system. The reason is that when a storm is stronger it is vertically stacked high up into the atmosphere and affected by upper air flow more than a weaker storm which has lower cloud tops. An example is many of the small waves this year that busted through trofs in the Atlantic and formed into storms near the US. The stronger waves off of Africa mostly recurved. I'll look up the pressure drop for you give me a bit
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:16 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION
Rita has peaked in intensity as the western side is not looking as strong as the Eastern side as it is running into strong high pressure. It will fluctuate over the next day and begin to weaken for good tomorrow into the Cat 4 range. Galveston is still ground zero at this time
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