Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:26 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION
Note the dark space pinching down between the two orange blobs along the Gulf Coast. This is a weak cold front further North that is weakening the ridge (orange) in the middle. This may very well be the reason Rita has been periodically angling North as she may be sensing this weakness.
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:59 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION
Got to run out for awhile but if this NW trend continues, SW Louisiana is where she will wind up and Baton Rouge and N.O will have big concerns. Houston and Galveston probably spared the worst now as storm will come in north of them IMO. Latest upper air soundings show high pressure ridge weakening so I don't see any reason why Rita begins to head more Westerly again. Lets change landfall to 30 miles either side of the TX/LA border. Will narrow it down to smaller window later tonight if movement doesn't become erratic...........Still as Cat 4.......140-145 mph storm upon landfall ....
Debbie, below I've included a link for you to look at that should give you an idea of where its heading. It updates every 1/2 hour to give you some clue and to keep you updated. Jeff, do you feel this has any threat to the Slidell, La. area? One of my relatives lives up there and shes looking for an opinion before she has to get back up in her attic with an ax.
Sorry folks, been having problems getting on board. The Slidel, N.O. area is safe. You will not need to seek refuge in your attic. While you may receive TS gusts in rain bands passing through, the winds will not be an issue. The issue may be after landfall (especially if in extreme SW LA) Rita may slow to a crawl or even stall about 75-100 miles inland. At that point rainbands coming SE to NW over LA to the storm center could set up localized rain totals approaching 8-12 inches+. Since it impossible now to predict where these bands will set up, I cannot promise you no flooding yet......
By the way, if you follow the line of storms over us now, it extends from North of Cuba ,through us NNW into the Gulf , then due West to the Northern portion of the storm center 425 miles away......quite impressive
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