3:30 pm...............Don't be fooled by the apparent weakening....storm is now intensifying one more time and with the eye tightening as it approaches the coast tonight, I still expect a Cat 4......140 mph gust to 165 ...930 mb major hurricane at 3AM Landfall (30 miles NE of Galveston).....................More later if warranted, or after 9pm tonight
9:45 pm....I have a difficult time understanding how Rita has a 931 mb pressure with only 120 mph winds. When she ramped up on Wednesday, her winds were at 145 at virtually the same pressure. It is my contention that like Katrina, just because the plane doesn't find the strongest winds during it's pass, doesn't mean they don't exist. When all is said and done, Katrina will go down as a Cat 5 upon landfall based on damage assessment. Rita will go down as a Cat 4 for the same reason when all the investigations are complete. Landfall at 3:30 am just west of Port Arthur TX.
DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOVERING NEAR 930 MB THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD
STILL BEEN 120-125 KT.
Storm making landfall at exactly the pressure I forecasted:
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:59 pm Post subject:
Got to run out for awhile but if this NW trend continues, SW Louisiana is where she will wind up and Baton Rouge and N.O will have big concerns. Houston and Galveston probably spared the worst now as storm will come in north of them IMO. Latest upper air soundings show high pressure ridge weakening so I don't see any reason why Rita begins to head more Westerly again. Lets change landfall to 30 miles either side of the TX/LA border.
I still believe winds will verify at 140 upon landfall w/ higher gusts........I am packing it in and waiting for the next one.............God help these people tonight................
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum