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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Jose- Final Advisory
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Jose- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12936
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 12:28 pm    Post subject: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather
Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Harvey, located over Kentucky.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple of days, and this system could
become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven


Last edited by ccstorms on Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:07 pm; edited 3 times in total
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:42 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 12936
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

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ccstorms
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Posts: 12936
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:14 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Satellite data
indicate that this system is already producing winds near tropical
storm force. There is a strong likelihood that a tropical depression
or tropical storm will form within the next few days while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.



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chris
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005
Posts: 3340
Location: Cape Coral, Florida

PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:54 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Tropical Storm Jose


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chris
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:58 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 5 the center of Jose was located near 12.3, -39.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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chris
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:00 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote


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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:20 pm    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...QUICKLY STRENGTHENING JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 45.8W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:52 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 50.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
islands of Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
islands of Anguilla, Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the islands of Saba and St. Eustatius
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:53 am    Post subject: Re: Jose- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Jose is developing an eye. Convection remains very symmetric around
the center, and a well-defined mid-level eye has been evident in
microwave imagery throughout the morning. Outflow remains well
established in all quadrants, despite the close proximity of Irma
to the west, perhaps in part due to the small size of Jose. The
initial intensity has been held at 80 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB. However, the overall trend of
intensification is not likely to have ended, and Jose is still
forecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 h. After about 48
h, most of the intensity guidance indicates that Jose will begin to
weaken, but the extent of that weakening varies quite a bit, in
part due to uncertainty surrounding how much the shear from a
deep-layer trough to the north and Irma may affect Jose after it
passes the Leeward Islands. The official forecast is still close to
the HWRF for the first 36 h, and close to the intensity consensus,
IVCN, after that.

The initial motion remains 285/16 kt. Almost no change has been
made to the first 36 h of the forecast, and the hurricane is still
expected to continue west-northwestward, along the southern extent
of the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the global models
suggest that an approaching mid-latitude trough will cause the
ridge to retreat, causing Jose to turn more toward the northwest,
and eventually toward the north. Based on the lastest model runs,
this turn may happen a little later than previously expected. Thus,
the NHC official forecast has been nudged toward the west at days
3-5, and is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.9N 50.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 16.6N 58.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.5N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 20.3N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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