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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - Ophelia- Final Advisory
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Ophelia- Final Advisory
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ccstorms
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 13143
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 23.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 23.7 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued
northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will
continue to pass south and east of the Azores tonight.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in
strength is expected tonight, but the hurricane is likely to become
post-tropical by early Monday morning, if not sooner. Ophelia is
forecast to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane-force winds
as it approaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). The wind field of Ophelia is forecast to expand
substantially and wind and rain effects in Ireland and the UK are
expected to reach the coast well before the arrival of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
through tonight, primarily due to a cold front currently passing
through the islands.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over the central and southeastern Azores through
Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:04 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 18.3W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 18.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today and
on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful
post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
Ophelia's eye recently passed near a drifting buoy that measured a
pressure of 970.9 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:07 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Although the satellite appearance of Ophelia has been slowly
degrading this morning, the cyclone remains an impressive hurricane
due to it being over the relatively cool waters of the northeastern
Atlantic. A testament to Ophelia's strength is a late arriving buoy
report 25 nmi southeast of the center of the eye from around 0200Z,
which indicated that the pressure in the southeastern portion of the
large eye or eyewall was 970.9 mb. However, Dvorak intensity
estimates have been steadily decreasing since that buoy report, so
the intensity has been lowered to 90 kt for this advisory.

Ophelia continues to accelerate and the hurricane is now moving
050/30 kt. Water vapor imagery indicates that a deepening trough
just to west of Ophelia is moving quickly eastward, and that the
cyclone is now well embedded within the deep-layer southwesterly
flow on the east side of the trough. As a result, Ophelia is
expected to turn toward the north-northeast by tonight and be
accompanied by a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC model
guidance remains in excellent agreement on Ophelia reaching the
southern coast of Ireland in 24-30 hours, and then move across
the remainder of the country Monday night, and then move across
Northern Ireland and northern Great Britain on Tuesday.

Ophelia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 hours
when extratropical transition should be completed, although the
transition to an extratropical cyclone could occur as early as 12
hours. Regardless of the exact timing, post-tropical cyclone Ophelia
is forecast to remain a powerful storm with hurricane-force winds
when it reaches Ireland on Monday. The system is forecast to
occlude and interact with land, which should cause a faster rate of
weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with dissipation expected shortly
thereafter.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK until Monday, strong winds and rains will arrive well in
advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should
consult products from their local meteorological service for more
information on local impacts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 39.0N 18.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 43.0N 15.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 49.0N 11.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/1800Z 54.0N 8.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 57.7N 4.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z 60.8N .1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 16.0W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 16.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will
approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains
should begin earlier.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Ophelia should
maintain hurricane force winds until it reaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery
indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate
and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also
weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to
decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the
technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80
kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear,
Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical
cyclone later today.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the
north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the
fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to
persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before
dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement
and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the
southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time).
Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain
until dissipation.

Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will
arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 41.6N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 44.6 North, longitude 13.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on
Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the
center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the
Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to
protect lives and property should be nearing completion.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Ophelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly, and microwave and
shortwave IR imagery indicate that the low-level and mid-level
centers are becoming separated. However, some deep convection is
still present near Ophelia's center, and an SSMIS pass from 1827 UTC
indicated that the hurricane still has an inner core that is
separated from a front to the north and west. The estimated maximum
winds have been decreased slightly to 75 kt given the overall decay
of the cloud structure. However, the cyclone's favorable position
relative to an upper-level jet streak is likely contributing to
deepening of the low as the wind field expands substantially. Only
a slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before
the post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland. After that time,
interaction with land while the cyclone occludes should cause it to
weaken more rapidly. Around 48 h, the cyclone's circulation is
likely to become ill-defined and dissipate near the western coast of
Scandinavia.

Ophelia has continued to move toward the north-northeast, and the
initial motion estimate remains 025/33 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning since Ophelia is already embedded
within the flow associated with a large mid-latitude trough. This
should keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over
Ireland and the UK on Monday. The dynamical guidance remains in
very good agreement on the track of Ophelia, and very little change
has been made to the track forecast.

Since Ophelia will be post-tropical as it approaches Ireland and the
UK, strong winds and rain will arrive over land areas sooner than
the center. For more information on local impacts, consult products
from local meteorological services in Ireland and the United Kingdom
for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 44.6N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:31 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat...igh-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:32 am    Post subject: Re: Ophelia- Final Advisory Reply with quote

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection
near Ophelia's center has been sheared off well to the north, and
the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure.
Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an
attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a
cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The
powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with
recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains
75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to
gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours.
Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still
likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to
portions of western Ireland on Monday.

Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past
6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion
estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is
complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north-
northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within
the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day
or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of
Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night.
The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this
scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from
the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts,
warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical
cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will
continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are
likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine
conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the
United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 49.2N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 61.9N 0.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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