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Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - INVEST 90L-PART 3
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INVEST 90L-PART 3
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral | Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2006 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:26 pm    Post subject: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

20 kts. 1010mb.



Last edited by ccstorms on Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:19 pm; edited 2 times in total
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:28 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061011 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061011 0000 061011 1200 061012 0000 061012 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 57.5W 13.6N 59.5W 14.7N 61.3W 15.6N 62.6W
BAMM 12.8N 57.5W 13.6N 59.8W 14.8N 61.6W 15.7N 62.9W
A98E 12.8N 57.5W 13.4N 60.3W 14.0N 62.9W 14.9N 64.9W
LBAR 12.8N 57.5W 13.8N 59.9W 15.2N 61.9W 16.3N 63.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061013 0000 061014 0000 061015 0000 061016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 63.7W 16.8N 65.5W 16.0N 68.8W 15.7N 72.3W
BAMM 16.5N 63.9W 16.8N 65.9W 16.1N 69.2W 15.5N 73.5W
A98E 15.4N 66.7W 15.7N 70.1W 15.3N 73.9W 15.1N 78.0W
LBAR 17.5N 64.9W 19.2N 67.1W 19.5N 69.0W 19.2N 71.2W
SHIP 38KTS 46KTS 53KTS 61KTS
DSHP 38KTS 46KTS 53KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 54.3W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 51.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:31 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

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chris
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:31 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

Storm looks pretty organized already Lou. I was hoping to not see one develope that far south so this is something we are definitely going to have to keep an eye on. Do you have any outlook on what it might do?
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chris
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:53 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:55 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

More model runs....


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:40 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

National Data Buoy Center

Look at Buoy 41101. Wind speed 31 knts. as of now, 11:41 pm EDT.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:28 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

Chris, if it remains weak/shallow while in the eastern Caribbean it will continue to the west. The models show building high pressure to it's north. The ships model brings it to hurricane strength near the western Caribbean right near the highest sst's and TC heat potential that exists in the Atlantic basin.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 9:45 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

Thanks Lou. Seems the models have become very unstable. Some shifting to the north and some due west. Let's only hope that this system gets shifted to the north and becomes another fish and moves out to sea. If it does move west it could spell trouble. Very Happy
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:10 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L-PART 3 Reply with quote

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