Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 4:55 pm Post subject: TROPICS BLAZING, JETSTREAMS PHASING, METS AMAZING ???
While we may well be ending the threat of a Hurricane in the Gulf this season, tropical activity is still possible. The recent storm which rode up Eastern Texas, definitely had tropical storm-like impact in many areas. Piers were damaged by tidal surge and winds over 50 mph were common along coastal areas with 3 ft. above normal tides up to Alabama. Anyway, there is a tropical disturbance on the Pacific side of Mexico which in this pattern, has a decent shot at recurving into Mexico and finding it's way into the Gulf. Naturally, with the hostile shear accompanying the digging trof.............a true tropical system would not develop. However, with the abnormally warm waters persisting in the Gulf, the tropical energy may very well interact with a phasing northern/southern branch jet stream to form a hybrid system in the Gulf later next week which would have the potential to create squall lines on it's eastern flank that would be comparable in intensity to those generated by a strong tropical storm. Torrential rains would run from the Gulf Coast ......up the East coast. In the meantime, with another unusually cold October airmass diving in, heavy snows would breakout FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, through the interior Northeast. This IMO will be a repetitive pattern this winter as a weak el-nino interacts with a warmer than normal Gulf to spawn several Noreasters. Most of Florida will have well above normal precip. this winter (amounts greatest North)................As for the Mets.......game 7 tonight.....................
Posted: Mon Oct 23, 2006 9:13 am Post subject: Re: TROPICS BLAZING, JETSTREAMS PHASING, METS AMAZING ???
Still bullish on my big ticket storm this coming weekend (Fri-Sat) albeit a bit further North. Reminents of Paul will get entrained into a wave ejecting NE from the Northern Gulf. Severe weather will breakout from about New Orleans East and Northeast thru Virginia. The storm will then phase with the polar jet off VA or DE and head NE along the coast. At it's apex, pressures should be down below 29.00 and winds on the western flank gusting around 60 mph. Heavy rains NE coastal areas and possible damaging wet snow (Did he say blizzard in October ) interior NE PA northward......We will see later in the week. Either way, the front behind this mess should blast SE thru Florida and should be the focus of some cooler.....wetter weather for Florida next week as the active (El Nino) Southern Branch blasts across the Gulf.. (A prelude to this winter in FLA???)
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:08 pm Post subject: Re: TROPICS BLAZING, JETSTREAMS PHASING, METS AMAZING ???
Well, this storm is going to be everything and more that I touted from last week. The only difference is the further west track across Western NY (less synoptic snow in NE) due to a small timing issue with the polar jet diving in. Large scale power outages are likely from the Mason-Dixon line Northward as hurricane force gusts are caused by a sub 29.80 low and it's associated pressure gradient. Another lake effect bonanza is on the way as winter in October continues. By the way I see a cooler/ wetter pattern developing for Florida later next week on as a big arctic high settles off the east coast and creates a long easterly fetch down there (with some east coast beach erosion. Oh.........and watch the Carribean one more time as this pattern can easily develop and draw a tropical entity northward................after all.....IT'S STILL HURRICANE SEASON...
Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:59 pm Post subject: Re: TROPICS BLAZING, JETSTREAMS PHASING, METS AMAZING ???
Storm is shaping up nicely. Gonna be wild for about six or seven hours with damaging winds. Gusts to 65 mph on Cape cod likely.
The saving grace with this event isw it's rapid foward speed. Compared to the "perfect storm" that had 50 hours of 50 mph winds.
I think the Maine coast will see some hurricane force winds. we shall see.
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